Journal / 2014-05-26

Gartner's Hype Cycle

I had a really interesting discussion with Chris Szymansky, the VP of Engineering at The Resumator, last week. The discussion was all about their high-level business strategy – where they are at, what the competition looks like at this point, what has happened since I was with them a couple of years ago and so on. It was a really interesting conversation in and of itself, and it reminded me again why I love working at technology startups. There is no doubt that including your employees on such discussions is one of the most effective ways to motivate them.

At any rate, I am obviously not going to dive into any details, but I did find one part of the talk particularly interesting. It was all about what Chris called the “technology hype cycle,” an applicable methodology established by leading information technology research and advisory company Gartner.

While the concept might have been groundbreaking when it was introduced, I think most people would agree that the cycle is now pretty intuitive. After all, it is designed to be a general framework that can be applied to most situations, and everything from startups to programming languages and hardware does seem to follow the cycle. With that said, I had never formally attached terminology to the evolution of technology, and I found that process intriguing.

The process according to Gartner is more-or-less as follows. After a potential technological breakthrough, you have a few people hacking together some proof-of-concepts which hopefully elicits a reaction in the media. As the idea gains more traction, the first stage of Technology Trigger climaxes to the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Companies may stay up here for a little while, but at some point as implementations fail to deliver or producers simply shake out, they begin to descend towards the Trough of Disillusionment.

Some companies actually take a nosedive at this point which, as indicated by the whole fail fast concept, is better than a prolonged descent. Obviously the best option is to avoid the trough completely – which is definitely possible. The idea is to “build a bridge” over to the Slope of Enlightenment and stabilize on the Plateau of Productivity as quickly as possible. At this point, the goal for some is a nice acquisition, while others might opt to maintain the successful company they have built.